Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:47:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F1 0xf1f0…c453 sports 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+8%) realized +$11 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +15.5% +4.5% 43% 40% -1.0%
≤30d 30 +15.5% +4.5% 43% 40% -1.0%
≤90d 30 +15.5% +4.5% 43% 40% -1.0%
all 30 +15.5% +4.5% 43% 40% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 40% -1.0%
10% -5.5% 40% -10.4%
15% -14.6% 40% -19.1%
20% -23.0% 40% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)30 / 41
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Eva Lys 35¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Ignacio Buse 37¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Hamad Medjedovic Miomir Kecmanovic 36¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Liudmila Samsonova 39¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vukic Hamish Stewart 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Clara Tauson 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer Valentin Royer 31¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Ayla Aksu Ayla Aksu 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot Elsa Jacquemot 31¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Roman Andres Burruchaga 30¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu Irina-Camelia Begu 32¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu Jun 20 $2 +$4 +216%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele Jun 20 $2 +$3 +165%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks Jun 20 $2 +$3 +165%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $2 +$4 +188%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Jun 20 $2 +$4 +197%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $2 +$4 +172%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson Jun 20 $2 +$3 +165%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall Jun 20 $2 +$4 +180%
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $2 +$3 +158%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $2 +$2 +114%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $2 +$4 +216%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $2 +$5 +226%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 100¢ $50 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 34¢ $2 10h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Eva Lys 35¢ $2 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Elsa Jacquemot 31¢ $2 10h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Ayla Aksu BUY Ayla Aksu 30¢ $2 10h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 32¢ $2 10h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 39¢ $2 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 30¢ $2 10h
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 36¢ $2 10h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer BUY Valentin Royer 31¢ $2 10h
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 37¢ $2 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk BUY Hamish Stewart 38¢ $2 10h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Juan Estevez 32¢ $2 10h
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Elizara Yaneva 35¢ $2 27h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Shuai Zhang 37¢ $2 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele BUY Oksana Selekhmeteva 37¢ $2 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur BUY Sofia Kenin 38¢ $2 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Emiliana Arango 37¢ $2 28h
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Viktorija Golubic 32¢ $2 28h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hanne Vandewink BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 34¢ $2 28h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Mimi Xu 36¢ $2 28h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu BUY Jan Choinski 31¢ $2 28h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 39¢ $2 28h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 34¢ $2 28h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Cosme de Ravel 34¢ $2 28h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Alastair Gray 35¢ $2 28h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson BUY Murphy Cassone 37¢ $2 28h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall BUY Abedallah Shelbayh 35¢ $2 28h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart BUY Hamish Stewart 33¢ $2 28h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 36¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.35 · official $21.35 (match) · 55 history records