Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:08:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F1 0xf1f2…4f6d sports 193 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,195 (-8%) realized −$2,196 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%78W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$406est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$667
7 days−$205
14 days−$762
30 days−$945
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,594
other 4% −$680
crypto 2% −$211
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +0.8% -8.8% 49% 46% -10.2%
≤30d 112 -7.2% -16.0% 46% 44% -13.6%
≤90d 192 -16.8% -24.7% 41% 40% -17.9%
all 192 -16.8% -24.7% 41% 40% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 40% -17.9%
10% -31.9% 39% -25.8%
15% -38.5% 37% -33.0%
20% -44.5% 32% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$95 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized−$2,196
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses78 / 114
Est. fees paid−$406
Open positions1
Markets (closed)192 / 193
History coverage53d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Vitality 60¢ 60¢ $179 $180 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $113 −$112 -99%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 19 $34 +$80 +238%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $56 −$23 -40%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $220 −$164 -75%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $303 +$22 +7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $145 −$142 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $289 +$53 +18%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $158 −$155 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $249 +$197 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$85 -83%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $637 −$72 -11%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $73 −$72 -98%
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) Jun 18 $159 −$157 -99%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) Jun 18 $268 −$116 -43%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 17 $197 +$78 +40%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $251 −$54 -22%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $304 −$50 -16%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $127 −$125 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $154 −$24 -16%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $98 +$56 +57%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $173 +$83 +48%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $46 +$43 +93%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $108 +$163 +152%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 17 $223 −$115 -52%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 17 $294 −$71 -24%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $342 −$49 -14%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 17 $13 +$7 +54%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $399 −$64 -16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $110 −$108 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $199 −$89 -45%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 16 $147 +$87 +59%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $138 +$72 +52%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $85 −$39 -46%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 16 $449 +$471 +105%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $163 +$116 +71%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $292 −$288 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $269 −$174 -65%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $159 +$104 +65%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $155 +$154 +99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $162 +$139 +86%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $201 +$138 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $78 +$27 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $149 −$96 -64%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $111 −$109 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $92 +$113 +123%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $237 −$234 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $139 +$97 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $125 +$53 +42%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $201 −$41 -20%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $98 +$54 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 60¢ $181 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $113 8h
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) BUY Athletics 29¢ $34 17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $34 17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $56 18h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 13¢ $56 18h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 49¢ $220 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 68¢ $151 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 31¢ $105 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 43¢ $152 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 41¢ $145 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $342 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 84¢ $289 25h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 45¢ $158 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $446 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $249 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $15 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 38h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 100¢ $335 38h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 49¢ $73 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 69¢ $232 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Dallas Wings 32¢ $231 40h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Dallas Wings 54¢ $405 40h
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) BUY New York Liberty 53¢ $159 42h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) SELL Washington Mystics 40¢ $152 42h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) BUY Washington Mystics 69¢ $268 43h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 71¢ $197 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL INOX Division 56¢ $197 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 70¢ $251 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.29 · official $180.29 (match) · 347 history records