Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:47:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1f2…8c8d sports 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3483 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,661 (-2%) realized −$1,667 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -87% what you keep after slip
Net edge-87%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate7%6W / 77L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$3,808per market
Trades / day3483.0pace
Fees−$400est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$2,532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$1,188
sports 31% +$175
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3483 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-84.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -82.3% -84.0% 7% 1% -8.4%
≤30d 83 -82.3% -84.0% 7% 1% -8.4%
≤90d 83 -82.3% -84.0% 7% 1% -8.4%
all 83 -82.3% -84.0% 7% 1% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3483.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -84.0% 1% -8.4%
10% -85.5% 1% -17.1%
15% ← realistic here -86.9% 1% -25.2%
20% -88.2% 1% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -82% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -67% → late -97% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
92.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$283 vs −$13 · ×22.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,532
Realized−$1,667
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses6 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$400
Open positions6
Markets (closed)83 / 19
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$3,808
Trades / day3483.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? No 79¢ 78¢ $630 $628 −$2 (-0%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 68¢ 68¢ $546 $540 −$6 (-1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 89¢ 88¢ $356 $354 −$2 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $272 $270 −$2 (-1%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 31¢ 32¢ $188 $195 +$7 (+4%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 32¢ 32¢ $128 $130 +$2 (+2%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $128 $129 +$1 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 54¢ $97 $101 +$5 (+5%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 47¢ 46¢ $89 $86 −$3 (-3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$7 -174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$10 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$13 -161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$11 -176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$9 -154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$8 -170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$12 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$12 -856%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$7 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qual Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$8 -123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$7 -157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$6 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$14 -1551%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$16 -147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$16 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$6 -842%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$2 -139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$15 -204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$14 -256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$13 -133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$17 -1541%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $156 1m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $44 2m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $178 6m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $136 8m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $178 16m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $158 22m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $134 30m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 68¢ $136 31m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 58m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $62 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $136 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL No 2¢ $4 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 97¢ $151 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $198 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL No 6¢ $12 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 96¢ $192 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $143 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 99¢ $19 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $131 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $40 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $149 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 5¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $190 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $96 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 99¢ $177 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,531.90 · official $2,531.90 (match) · 3500 history records