Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1f3…7080 crypto 1033 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%577W / 454L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day33.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$164
other 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 361 -4.0% -13.2% 53% 51% -11.0%
≤30d 546 -2.8% -12.1% 55% 53% -10.2%
≤90d 1004 -1.2% -10.6% 55% 53% -17.7%
all 1031 +0.0% -9.5% 56% 55% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 55% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 51% -23.0%
15% -26.1% 37% -30.5%
20% -33.3% 7% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses577 / 454
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1031 / 1033
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1031 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Down 10¢ 34¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+235%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Down 10¢ 28¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+185%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 210 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.20 · official $6.20 (match) · 3500 history records