Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F1 0xf1f3…b370 sports 52 markets active 2d ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$625 (+3%) realized +$619 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate70%35W / 15L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$139est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$706now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$167
14 days+$37
30 days+$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$462
other 7% −$262
crypto 2% +$210
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +7.5% -2.7% 67% 40% -10.9%
≤30d 47 +8.9% -1.5% 72% 45% -7.8%
≤90d 50 +11.7% +1.1% 70% 44% -7.4%
all 50 +11.7% +1.1% 70% 44% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 44% -7.4%
10% -8.6% 30% -16.3%
15% -17.4% 22% -24.4%
20% -25.5% 18% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$100 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$706
Realized+$619
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses35 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$139
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage65d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $600 $611 +$11 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 78¢ 74¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $103 −$85 -83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $752 −$251 -33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $408 −$93 -23%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $201 +$55 +27%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $182 +$113 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $195 +$13 +6%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $823 −$93 -11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,963 −$396 -20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $150 +$6 +4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $152 +$62 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $213 −$121 -57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 14 $592 +$68 +12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $151 +$20 +13%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $280 +$25 +9%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2,055 +$54 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$68 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $413 +$119 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $498 +$91 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,558 +$97 +6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $26 +$64 +249%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $103 −$47 -46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 +$20 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $104 +$46 +44%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $351 +$19 +5%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 11 $1,302 +$60 +5%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $199 +$31 +16%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $1,516 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 08 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 08 $118 −$118 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 08 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 08 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 08 $21 +$39 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 08 $206 +$141 +69%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $244 +$82 +33%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $433 +$76 +18%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $519 +$56 +11%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $501 +$18 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 31 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +23%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $288 +$280 +97%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 16 $141 −$1 -0%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $50 +$86 +172%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 12 $50 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $60 2d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $59 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 78¢ $101 2d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $392 2d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $62 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 25¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 53¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 53¢ $19 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 53¢ $257 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $52 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 9¢ $38 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 24¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 74¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 32¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 31¢ $100 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 30¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 24¢ $153 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 16¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 17¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 83¢ $278 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $706.34 · official $706.34 (match) · 244 history records