Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:30:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1f4…1320 crypto 357 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$2,563 (-10%) realized −$1,082 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%232W / 225L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day187.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$621now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$510
7 days−$618
14 days−$629
30 days−$1,082
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 320 -24.5% -31.7% 50% 40% -13.1%
≤30d 457 -18.9% -26.6% 51% 42% -13.4%
≤90d 457 -18.9% -26.6% 51% 42% -13.4%
all 457 -18.9% -26.6% 51% 42% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover187.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.6% 42% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -33.6% 22% -21.7%
15% -40.0% 13% -29.3%
20% -45.9% 7% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$20 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$621
Realized−$1,082
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses232 / 225
Open positions2
Markets (closed)457 / 357
History coverage17d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day187.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 457 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 83¢ 100¢ $99 $120 +$21 (+21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 88¢ 100¢ $88 $100 +$12 (+14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Up 89¢ 100¢ $89 $100 +$11 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Down 81¢ 100¢ $81 $100 +$19 (+24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 82¢ 100¢ $81 $98 +$17 (+21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 82¢ 69¢ $99 $83 −$16 (-16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 84¢ 100¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $16 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $17 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $17 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $17 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $18 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $13 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $16 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $16 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $17 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $17 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $17 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $15 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $16 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $16 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $16 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $18 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $18 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $18 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $18 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $9 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $621.22 · official $624.78 (match) · 3500 history records