Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1f4…7e74 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+7%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$73
sports 29% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -23.7% -31.0% 36% 36% -2.1%
≤30d 14 -23.7% -31.0% 36% 36% -2.1%
≤90d 14 -23.7% -31.0% 36% 36% -2.1%
all 14 -23.7% -31.0% 36% 36% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 36% -2.1%
10% -37.6% 36% -11.4%
15% -43.6% 36% -20.0%
20% -49.2% 36% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -74% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$12 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$65 +213%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$12 +76%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$25 +83%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 3h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 25h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 26h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 2d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.68 · official $9.68 (match) · 23 history records