Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:48:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F1 0xf1f4…8e52 crypto 39 markets active 3h ago coverage 650d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$886 (+17%) realized +$886 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%12W / 27L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$437
7 days+$437
14 days+$383
30 days+$383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$452
crypto 21% +$395
politics 3% −$10
economics 1% $0
other 0% −$6
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-45.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.4% -12.6% 40% 40% +38.3%
≤30d 6 -19.5% -27.2% 33% 33% +29.9%
≤90d 7 -31.0% -37.6% 29% 29% -29.7%
all 39 -39.7% -45.4% 31% 23% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.4% 23% +5.0%
10% -50.6% 23% -5.0%
15% -55.4% 18% -14.2%
20% -59.8% 15% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -57% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$230 vs −$71 · ×3.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

650d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$886
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses12 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage650d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 25 $39 +$75 +192%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 25 $681 +$442 +65%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 24 $105 −$78 -74%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $745 −$745 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers Mar 12 $1,200 +$1,020 +85%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 11 $58 +$3 +5%
76ers vs. Suns Feb 08 $950 +$1,160 +122%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challen Feb 07 $10 +$4 +41%
Stars vs. Blue Jackets Jan 22 $926 −$926 -100%
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov Jan 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Jan 14 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump be Speaker by January 1? Dec 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in December? Dec 25 $55 +$17 +32%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Dec 07 $58 −$2 -3%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Thursday? Nov 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will macdegods be the biggest loser of The House Poker Night? Nov 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AOC win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Nov 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will any other Democrat Politician win the popular vote in the 2024 Pr Nov 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will a 3rd party candidate win the popular vote or the Presidency? Nov 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elizabeth Warren win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential El Nov 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in November? Nov 28 $16 +$10 +64%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Nov 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum above $3,000 on November 15? Nov 21 $28 +$8 +27%
Kamala Harris blowout victory? Nov 05 $9 $0 -4%
Topuria vs. Holloway Nov 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Bears vs. Rams Nov 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 before October? Nov 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum above $2,600 on October 25? Nov 05 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 25 $5 −$2 -38%
Packers vs. Vikings Oct 25 $10 +$13 +131%
Fed rate cut by September 18? Sep 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed rate cut by November 7? Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? Sep 28 $11 $0 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $55 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $77 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $403 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $720 12h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $37 12h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 14h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $39 15h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $363 15h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $131 15h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 15h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 15h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $85 15h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 15h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $24 17h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records