Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:58:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1f4…7f7b other 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate33%34W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$43
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$28
other 11% +$10
finance 4% −$35
politics 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 21 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 27 -1.2% -10.6% 30% 0% -9.6%
all 103 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 4% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses34 / 69
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage446d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $157 $157 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $343 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $171 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $171 +$1 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 17 $19 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $171 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $93 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $163 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $155 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $73 +$3 +4%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $52 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $668 +$40 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $135 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $364 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $125 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1,176 −$7 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $19 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $127 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $276 −$35 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $190 −$6 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $154 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $248 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $73 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $14 −$2 -17%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 13 $944 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 11 $47 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $17 −$1 -7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 30 $1,040 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 18 $1 $0 +31%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 18 $4 $0 -5%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 13 $9 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $157 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $125 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $123 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $172 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $172 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $171 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $171 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $172 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $172 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $171 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $171 39h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $19 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $19 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $171 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $171 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $93 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $93 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $163 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $163 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $155 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $62 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $93 10d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $62 10d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 10d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 10d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $62 10d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $52 10d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $52 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 98¢ $123 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $84 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.44 · official $157.44 (match) · 384 history records