Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:40:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F1 0xf1fb…e716 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$65 (+20%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%22W / 10L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$56
14 days+$84
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$71
other 8% +$13
crypto 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +17.5% +6.3% 65% 65% +18.6%
≤30d 32 +27.4% +15.2% 69% 69% +23.5%
≤90d 32 +27.4% +15.2% 69% 69% +23.5%
all 32 +27.4% +15.2% 69% 69% +23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.2% 69% +23.5%
10% +4.2% 69% +11.7%
15% -5.9% 69% +0.9%
20% -15.1% 62% -9.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.89 per $1 lost it wins $2.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses22 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage14d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 63¢ 64¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 66¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 +$7 +67%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$6 +62%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$7 +67%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $6 −$1 -23%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$6 +55%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $5 +$4 +73%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 +$4 +86%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 +$4 +43%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$7 +73%
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$8 +149%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$13 +124%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$3 +65%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $7 +$5 +67%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$3 +65%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$3 -62%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $5 +$5 +95%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $10 +$8 +79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $30 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 10h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $10 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 13h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $10 13h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 47¢ $5 15h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $6 20h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 20h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 73¢ $30 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 15¢ $21 20h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 43h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $5 43h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $10 43h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $5 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $14 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $10 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $10 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 39¢ $5 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $5 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $5 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 44¢ $10 5d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 6d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $7 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 18¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.56 · official $64.56 (match) · 60 history records