Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F1 0xf1fc…cafc other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 192d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$40 (+11%) realized +$40 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip

Net edge+15%after slip

Net WR59%break-even

Win rate65%11W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$19per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit37%portable

Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$13

7 days+$12

14 days+$37

30 days+$37

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +59%

net ROI/market (all)+14.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+8.1%	-2.2%	80%	70%	-3.2%
≤30d	13	+46.0%	+32.1%	77%	69%	+7.4%
≤90d	13	+46.0%	+32.1%	77%	69%	+7.4%
all	17	+27.0%	+14.9%	65%	59%	-4.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+14.9%	59%	-4.4%
10%	+3.9%	47%	-13.6%
15%	-6.1%	41%	-21.9%
20%	-15.3%	29%	-29.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 51% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

9% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +27% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +35% → late +20% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.15 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage

Net worth$50

Realized+$40

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses11 / 6

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)17 / 19

History coverage192d

Avg bet$19

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	85¢	86¢	$30	$30	+$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	83¢	82¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$27	+$3	+10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$14	+$6	+46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$18	+$2	+12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$18	+$2	+12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$13	+$7	+55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$14	−$14	-99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$13	+$7	+50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$16	+$4	+24%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	+$15	+73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	+$12	+114%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$12	−$12	-99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	+$26	+503%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Jan 30	$21	+$34	+161%
Spurs vs. Thunder	Dec 14	$12	−$11	-92%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	Dec 14	$28	−$28	-100%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors	Dec 13	$47	−$17	-36%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$20	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	85¢	$30	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$27	19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$14	19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	89¢	$18	40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$14	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$18	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$13	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	80¢	$16	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$13	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$20	5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$20	5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$22	7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	38¢	$2	7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	46¢	$10	7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$10	7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$31	8d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	8d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	SELL Yes	99¢	$55	143d
Spurs vs. Thunder	SELL Spurs	100¢	$12	191d
Spurs vs. Thunder	BUY Thunder	71¢	$1	191d
Spurs vs. Thunder	BUY Spurs	8¢	$1	191d
Spurs vs. Thunder	BUY Thunder	84¢	$10	191d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	BUY Yes	52¢	$28	191d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	BUY Yes	38¢	$21	191d
Timberwolves vs. Warriors	SELL Timberwolves	100¢	$42	192d
Timberwolves vs. Warriors	BUY Timberwolves	58¢	$10	192d
Timberwolves vs. Warriors	BUY Warriors	36¢	$5	192d
Timberwolves vs. Warriors	BUY Timberwolves	81¢	$20	192d
Timberwolves vs. Warriors	BUY Warriors	27¢	$2	192d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.06 · official $50.06 (match) · 39 history records