Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F1 0xf1ff…5b03 world 482 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 126d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,563 (+6%) realized +$8,633 · open −$70
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%193W / 282L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$6,309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,872
7 days−$5,576
14 days+$2,096
30 days+$5,429
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$3,592
other 28% +$3,907
politics 13% +$695
crypto 13% +$7,379
finance 6% +$87
tech 0% +$162
sports 0% −$166
economics 0% −$51
culture 0% −$32
weather 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -15.8% -23.9% 44% 35% -23.0%
≤30d 92 +6.6% -3.6% 49% 37% -5.3%
≤90d 302 +4.8% -5.2% 48% 37% -3.9%
all 475 -0.5% -10.0% 41% 31% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 31% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 26% -13.1%
15% -26.4% 21% -21.5%
20% -33.7% 17% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$69 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$6,309
Realized+$8,633
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses193 / 282
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)475 / 482
History coverage126d ⚠
Avg bet$300
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 475 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5,310 $5,336 +$26 (+0%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 60¢ $277 $279 +$2 (+1%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $270 $268 −$2 (-1%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 62¢ $184 $183 −$1 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $240 $142 −$98 (-41%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 91¢ 100¢ $76 $83 +$7 (+9%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No $22 $18 −$4 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $52 +$12 +24%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $322 −$73 -23%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $28 −$15 -52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $6,949 +$128 +2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $430 +$20 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $88 +$18 +20%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $7,978 −$233 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $5,571 −$3,707 -66%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $768 −$443 -58%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 15 $3,372 −$2,818 -84%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $1,020 +$300 +29%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $601 +$51 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,814 −$1,499 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $416 +$127 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1,219 −$803 -66%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $578 +$301 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $114 +$106 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $268 +$212 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$100 +100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $87 +$102 +117%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $64 +$33 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $625 −$240 -38%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $33 +$17 +52%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $23 −$17 -74%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $4,593 +$3,002 +65%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $102 −$10 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $39 +$25 +65%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $969 +$44 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $312 −$312 -100%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 10 $37 −$37 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $630 +$16 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $11,434 −$1,609 -14%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $176 −$176 -100%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $6,800 +$1 +0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $12,200 $0 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $94 −$83 -89%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 07 $104 −$41 -40%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 06 $213 +$2,562 +1200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 7m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $71 12m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $63 12m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $81 16m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $102 16m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 16m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 23m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $94 23m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 23m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $58 30m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $57 32m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 32m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 50m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $122 50m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 54m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 56m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $76 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $64 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $32 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $82 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $64 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,308.67 · official $6,307.10 (match) · 3500 history records