Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:44:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf201…b77c
other · 164 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$5 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses88 / 75
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 164
History coverage136d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit4%
Chart Positions 1 History 163 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +136%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +144%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $6 +$3 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $3 +$5 +169%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $4 −$3 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $2 +$4 +183%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $4 +$2 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $4 +$3 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $3 −$1 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $3 +$3 +104%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $4 +$2 +69%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $7 −$1 -21%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $8 +$2 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 05 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $2 $0 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 05 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $2 −$1 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $11 +$2 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 03 $2 +$3 +206%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $3 +$3 +101%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $3 −$1 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $7 −$6 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $4 −$2 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $15 −$11 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $13 −$3 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $3 −$3 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $5 −$3 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 94% −$5
crypto 6% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 14h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 15h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 16h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 40h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $6 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 10d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 10d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 12d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 12d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 12d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -15.8% -23.8% 33% 33% -12.1%
≤30d 24 -16.0% -24.0% 38% 38% -8.7%
≤90d 114 -0.2% -9.7% 49% 32% -10.4%
all 163 +2.8% -7.0% 54% 34% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 34% -9.8%
10% -15.9% 27% -18.4%
15% -24.0% 20% -26.3%
20% -31.5% 17% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.93 · official $1.93 (match) · 401 history records