Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:08:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf201…527e sports 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (259 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$377,338 (+65%) realized +$379,764 · open −$2,426
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%70W / 259L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,641per market
Trades / day259.3pace
Fees−$10,356est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$27,227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$22,767
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (259 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+61.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 279 +83.0% +65.6% 16% 16% -84.1%
≤30d 329 +78.5% +61.5% 21% 21% -59.5%
≤90d 329 +78.5% +61.5% 21% 21% -59.5%
all 329 +78.5% +61.5% 21% 21% -59.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover259.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +61.5% 21% -59.5%
10% +46.1% 20% -63.4%
15% ← realistic here +32.0% 19% -66.9%
20% +19.0% 18% -70.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +79% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$3,770) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late +178% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
32.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,033 vs −$2,920 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$27,227
Realized+$379,764
Unrealized−$2,426
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses70 / 259
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$10,356
Open positions1
Markets (closed)329 / 76
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$7,641
Trades / day259.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 329 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Yellow Submarine 45¢ 100¢ $12,340 $27,211 +$14,871 (+121%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner MODUS 22¢ 0¢ $2,432 $6 −$2,426 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 299 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $0 −$152 -58369%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $0 +$28,044 +9640479%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $2 +$39 +1682%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $0 +$2,868 +601788%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 26 $0 +$16,925 +7132173%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 26 $4,704 −$3,808 -81%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $0 +$5,164 +2449514%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $315 −$315 -100%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $0 −$1 -576%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $0 −$251 -66975%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 26 $0 −$168 -119226%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 26 $143 +$884 +618%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $2,126 −$2,126 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 26 $0 −$1 -602%
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $100 −$236 -236%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 4 Winner Jun 26 $2,718 −$2,718 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $47 −$47 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $123 −$123 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 26 $4,895 −$111 -2%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $2,203 −$2,203 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 26 $9,792 −$8,679 -89%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $4,675 −$4,973 -106%
Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $292 −$992 -340%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $45 +$213 +478%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 26 $1,180 −$1,180 -100%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $68 −$68 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $8,184 −$7,435 -91%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $35 −$20 -57%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 26 $2,163 −$1,540 -71%
Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) Jun 26 $96 −$96 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 26 $0 +$9 +27957%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $83 −$83 -100%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Jun 26 $1,420 −$1,119 -79%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $2,310 −$1,912 -83%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 26 $353 −$285 -81%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $5,260 −$5,260 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $2,669 −$3,141 -118%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $7,316 −$7,252 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $0 +$138 +81718%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 26 $407 −$648 -159%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) Jun 26 $44 −$38 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 2¢ $8 38m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 13¢ $23 45m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 13¢ $29 45m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 2¢ $8 53m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 2¢ $8 54m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 2¢ $8 54m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 20¢ $11 56m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 16¢ $66 58m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 16¢ $62 58m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 16¢ $66 58m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 16¢ $66 58m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 26¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 26¢ $102 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 26¢ $104 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 28¢ $48 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 28¢ $66 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 28¢ $24 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 28¢ $114 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 28¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 28¢ $114 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 11¢ $44 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 10¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 10¢ $22 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 10¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 29¢ $76 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 29¢ $40 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 29¢ $118 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 23¢ $98 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 22¢ $158 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 22¢ $153 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,227.07 · official $27,216.97 (match) · 3500 history records