Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf201…bf3f crypto 184 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+1%) realized +$27 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%109W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$53
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$105
crypto 36% −$74
weather 3% −$1
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 +4.4% -5.5% 61% 60% -4.8%
≤30d 183 -1.4% -10.7% 60% 58% -8.3%
≤90d 183 -1.4% -10.7% 60% 58% -8.3%
all 183 -1.4% -10.7% 60% 58% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 58% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 49% -17.1%
15% -27.1% 36% -25.1%
20% -34.2% 22% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses109 / 74
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)183 / 184
History coverage10d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Yes 47¢ 28¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +60%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $15 +$23 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +51%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$3 -66%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 +$14 +140%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 +$5 +50%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +40%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $32 +$13 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$6 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 +$3 +52%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$5 +48%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $4 +$4 +101%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +20%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +23%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +34%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $15 +$22 +145%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +65%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $15 +$4 +27%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $11 +$7 +62%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $23 +$24 +101%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 43m
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) SELL Haiti 100¢ $16 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Haiti 99¢ $38 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 30¢ $5 2h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 61¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 20¢ $5 2h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 46¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $5 4h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 62¢ $10 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $10 9h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 9h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 13h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $46 13h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $32 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 95¢ $11 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $8 31h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Switzerland 0¢ $5 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.85 · official $7.13 · 335 history records