Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:58:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf204…6734 politics 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$586 (+0%) realized +$586 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate27%36W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$961per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,072now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$10
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$70
other 39% −$38
sports 10% +$707
culture 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$3
economics 1% $0
world 1% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 64 -12.7% -21.0% 8% 2% -9.4%
all 131 +1.8% -7.9% 27% 11% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 11% -9.1%
10% -16.7% 11% -17.8%
15% -24.7% 11% -25.7%
20% -32.1% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,531) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$7 · ×4.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$1,072
Realized+$586
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses36 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage142d
Avg bet$961
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $734 $734 +$0 (+0%)
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $338 $338 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $2,107 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $523 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $372 +$1 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,005 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $998 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,031 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,985 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $5,481 −$6 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,087 −$5 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $851 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $542 +$1 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $1,150 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,531 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,437 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $966 −$2 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $1,658 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,684 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $4,783 −$5 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $7,083 −$9 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $4,796 −$5 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,646 −$3 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $3,203 −$4 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $1,556 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 02 $272 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? May 02 $525 +$1 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $1,555 −$2 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,377 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,551 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,557 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $2,653 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,549 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,563 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,314 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 15 $1,421 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,573 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,078 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,663 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $338 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $422 30h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $423 30h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $522 3d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $523 3d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $272 3d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $272 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $734 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $716 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $717 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,003 8d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,005 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,072 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,073 9d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $997 9d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $998 10d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,029 13d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,031 14d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,160 15d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,161 15d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $823 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $824 18d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,120 18d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,122 18d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $865 18d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $866 18d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $850 18d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $851 19d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $741 21d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $742 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,072.30 · official $1,072.30 (match) · 402 history records