Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf209…3f87
other · 6 markets active 2h ago
5.0score
+$11 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$26 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$197
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage32d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 4 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $41 $37 −$4 (-10%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $100 −$6 -6%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 14 $162 +$32 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 1¢ $42 1h
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 1h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $94 25d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 26d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $174 29d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 31d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $35 31d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $55 31d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 31d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 46¢ $19 31d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 31d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +6.7% -3.5% 50% 50% -0.7%
≤90d 2 +6.7% -3.5% 50% 50% -0.7%
all 2 +6.7% -3.5% 50% 50% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 50% -0.7%
10% -12.7% 0% -10.2%
15% -21.1% 0% -18.9%
20% -28.9% 0% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.65 · official $196.65 (match) · 18 history records