Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F2 0xf20a…9b78 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate53%20W / 18L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$2
other 22% +$1
politics 15% +$1
sports 9% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -0.9% -10.3% 31% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 13 -0.9% -10.3% 31% 0% -9.2%
all 38 -0.5% -10.0% 53% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.0%
10% -18.6% 0% -17.7%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses20 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage470d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $8 −$1 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 01 $34 +$2 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $8 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $38 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 29 $44 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $22 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $38 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $9 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $22 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $14 +$1 +9%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $15 $0 +2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 15 $14 $0 +1%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $2 $0 -27%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump post less than 80 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $15 $0 +3%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 17 $12 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 16 $15 $0 +0%
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 15 $13 $0 +2%
UT Martin vs. Tennessee Tech Mar 07 $14 $0 +4%
Will Trump's joint address to Congress be less than 50 min? Mar 04 $13 $0 -0%
Auburn vs. Texas A&M Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Syracuse vs. SMU Mar 04 $14 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $44 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $2 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $38 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $5 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $26 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $36 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $7 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $27 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 17¢ $3 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 17¢ $5 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 17¢ $8 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $9 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $30 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $38 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $38 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $38 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records