Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:52:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F2 0xf20a…642f crypto 514 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13,977 (+9%) realized +$18,718 · open −$4,741
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%209W / 303L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$883now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,231
14 days−$10,907
30 days+$14,475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$1,626
world 19% +$12,036
politics 3% +$420
other 1% −$310
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -81.2% -83.0% 0% 0% -68.0%
≤30d 245 +3.2% -6.6% 44% 42% +5.0%
≤90d 472 -6.1% -15.1% 41% 39% +2.0%
all 512 -7.6% -16.4% 41% 39% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 39% +0.3%
10% -24.4% 36% -9.3%
15% -31.7% 33% -18.1%
20% -38.4% 31% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -16% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$390 vs −$218 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$883
Realized+$18,718
Unrealized−$4,741
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses209 / 303
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)512 / 514
History coverage177d
Avg bet$300
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 512 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $5,614 $880 −$4,734 (-84%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 244 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $3,250 −$2,031 -62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8AM ET Jun 10 $1,833 −$1,824 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $104 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $103 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $104 −$68 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $522 +$287 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $619 +$106 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $1,464 −$1,400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $104 +$121 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $949 −$900 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $105 +$119 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $312 +$252 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $314 +$551 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 08 $1,149 −$1,100 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $3,500 +$1,791 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 05 $213 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 05 $105 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 05 $419 −$400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 05 $425 −$425 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 05 $519 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 05 $731 −$700 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 05 $1,520 −$1,451 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $130 +$101 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 05 $314 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2AM ET Jun 05 $302 +$606 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 05 $557 +$787 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 04 $103 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 04 $208 −$199 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 04 $524 −$500 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 04 $318 −$303 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 04 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 04 $103 +$36 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 04 $175 +$94 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 04 $211 +$250 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 04 $209 +$228 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $500 +$150 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 04 $34 +$30 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 04 $1,007 −$989 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 04 $104 −$102 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $311 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 04 $211 −$140 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 04 $103 −$42 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $100 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $100 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $100 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $100 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $130 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $100 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $70 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $19 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $46 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $50 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $100 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $100 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $1,219 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $300 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $750 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $300 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $500 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $3,500 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $988 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $1,500 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $71 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $882.95 · official $882.95 (match) · 2570 history records