Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:28:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf20b…ae3c
other · 60 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$68 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open −$61
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$190
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions24
Markets (closed)36 / 60
History coverage132d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%
Chart Positions 24 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$50
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+3%)
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $27 $15 −$12 (-45%)
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $23 $13 −$10 (-43%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $16 $9 −$7 (-44%)
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-67%)
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $6 $5 −$2 (-26%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+54%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$6 (-87%)
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+119%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $5 $0 +8%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $11 −$10 -88%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 31 $31 −$31 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 11 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 11 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $1 $0 +6%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Apr 20 $5 +$4 +85%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Apr 20 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $1 +$2 +165%
Will DeepSeek have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 23 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $1 +$2 +186%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $10 $0 -4%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 11 $1 $0 +38%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Feb 28 $10 +$6 +63%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 24 $14 +$6 +40%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $1 $0 +38%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 15 $1 +$2 +150%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $2 +$1 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 68% −$57
politics 13% +$1
tech 10% −$10
sports 7% −$14
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 13h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 13h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 13h
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 13h
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 2d
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $7 2d
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 2d
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 2d
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 2d
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $13 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 3d
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 3d
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 0% -6.1%
≤30d 8 -25.6% -32.6% 38% 25% -33.1%
≤90d 27 -9.6% -18.2% 41% 30% -24.5%
all 36 +2.1% -7.7% 50% 42% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 42% -16.8%
10% -16.5% 42% -24.7%
15% -24.6% 39% -32.0%
20% -32.0% 28% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.79 · official $190.93 (match) · 267 history records