Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf20e…36d0 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$133 (-4%) realized −$78 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%8W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$505
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$886
sports 29% +$698
world 2% −$65
crypto 2% −$6
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -12.6% -20.9% 20% 20% -9.1%
≤30d 25 -12.6% -20.9% 20% 20% -9.1%
≤90d 26 -13.7% -21.9% 19% 19% -11.4%
all 36 -6.3% -15.2% 22% 22% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 22% -17.3%
10% -23.3% 22% -25.2%
15% -30.7% 19% -32.5%
20% -37.5% 17% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$58 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$450
Realized−$78
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses8 / 28
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions8
Markets (closed)36 / 44
History coverage142d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $100 $129 +$29 (+29%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $50 $72 +$22 (+43%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-21%)
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $55 $36 −$20 (-35%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-49%)
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $13 −$37 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 20 $105 −$14 -14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $75 −$70 -94%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 +$48 +452%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $53 +$40 +76%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $53 −$14 -26%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $105 +$25 +24%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $100 +$809 +809%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Slovakia win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter O Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bad Bunny video becomes most viewed SB halftime on YouTube in 1st mont Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $103 +$168 +164%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 12 $100 −$41 -41%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 18 $100 −$61 -61%
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Feb 20 $50 +$75 +150%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 20 $50 −$21 -43%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season? Feb 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Golden State Warriors? Feb 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Men's Quarterfinals - Canada vs. Czechia Feb 19 $150 −$18 -12%
Will "Kidnapped: Elizabeth Smart" be the top US Netflix movie this wee Feb 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi Feb 19 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Feb 16 $50 +$226 +453%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 mi Feb 09 $10 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $53 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 64¢ $91 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $27 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 7h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $75 7h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $107 11h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $105 14h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $53 33h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $53 33h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 35h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $27 35h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $27 36h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $53 38h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $53 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $40 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $53 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $53 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $105 2d
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $37 3d
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $17 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $53 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $53 3d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $53 3d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $53 3d
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 3d
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 3d
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $53 4d
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $449.72 · official $449.72 (match) · 107 history records