Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:57:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf213…1663 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+2%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%9W / 22L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$20
economics 11% $0
sports 8% $0
politics 6% $0
other 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +1.8% -7.9% 33% 11% -5.9%
≤90d 9 +1.8% -7.9% 33% 11% -5.9%
all 31 +0.9% -8.7% 29% 3% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 3% -7.5%
10% -17.4% 0% -16.3%
15% -25.4% 0% -24.4%
20% -32.7% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×13.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.84 per $1 lost it wins $14.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses9 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage258d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $74 $73 −$0 (-1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $77 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $77 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $111 +$19 +18%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $94 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $33 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $24 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $29 −$1 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Dec 17 $21 $0 +2%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 06 $49 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Australia PM events on Oct Oct 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 19 $18 $0 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will FlyQuest win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will CTBC Flying Oyster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 19 $20 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 18 $2 $0 +8%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Kathryn Bigelow win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 09 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $35 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $3 5h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $29 5h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $40 5h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $5 5h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $21 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $40 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $17 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $77 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $68 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $9 16h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 94¢ $9 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 94¢ $8 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 94¢ $15 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 94¢ $47 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 71¢ $60 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $33 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $12 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $18 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $33 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $59 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.46 · official $73.35 (match) · 120 history records