Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:14:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf213…a627 sports 1031 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,401 (-3%) realized −$3,403 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%436W / 592L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day51.4pace
Fees−$1,280est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 55d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$859
politics 1% +$261
other 1% +$59
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 -27.6% -34.5% 35% 27% -16.1%
≤30d 588 -6.3% -15.3% 41% 32% -10.3%
≤90d 1028 -1.6% -11.0% 42% 35% -8.5%
all 1028 -1.6% -11.0% 42% 35% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 35% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 31% -17.3%
15% -27.3% 27% -25.3%
20% -34.4% 23% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$27 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized−$3,403
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses436 / 592
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1,280
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1028 / 1031
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$103
Trades / day51.4
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1028 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 84¢ 83¢ $81 $80 −$1 (-1%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 80¢ 80¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 80¢ 84¢ $55 $58 +$3 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $131 −$63 -48%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $52 +$41 +78%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$69 +226%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 15 $86 +$37 +44%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $42 −$42 -99%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 14 $54 −$53 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $46 +$52 +114%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 14 $15 −$11 -75%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 14 $59 −$58 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 14 $43 −$42 -98%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $194 +$61 +31%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $49 −$17 -35%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $84 −$33 -39%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $40 −$8 -20%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 14 $34 +$66 +192%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 14 $55 +$45 +80%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$28 -56%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$22 -44%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$20 -40%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 14 $42 +$28 +66%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 14 $65 +$10 +16%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $32 +$80 +252%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 13 $10 +$20 +197%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $13 +$11 +83%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$13 +130%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $39 −$38 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $16 +$17 +104%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $61 −$45 -73%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $86 +$31 +36%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 13 $45 −$44 -98%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 13 $14 +$12 +90%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 13 $39 +$1 +2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$13 +26%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 13 $15 −$4 -28%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 13 $91 +$109 +120%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 13 $37 +$54 +148%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$55 +109%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $92 +$126 +137%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 13 $73 +$77 +106%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 13 $85 +$64 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 84¢ $13 56m
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 84¢ $68 57m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 80¢ $68 58m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 80¢ $55 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $36 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 83¢ $30 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 26¢ $32 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $101 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 19¢ $5 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 26¢ $21 3h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $26 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 5h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 4¢ $4 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $42 5h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 69¢ $86 5h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 35¢ $18 7h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 35¢ $36 7h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM SELL LOS 100¢ $98 7h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 8¢ $4 12h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 30¢ $15 14h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 40¢ $41 14h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOS 46¢ $46 14h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 10¢ $10 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 14h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 39¢ $20 15h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 28¢ $14 15h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 28¢ $29 15h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 39¢ $39 15h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions SELL SSG Landers 33¢ $32 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.21 · official $206.21 (match) · 3500 history records