Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:29:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf219…3776 politics 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,543 (+1%) realized +$1,542 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate28%38W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$1,068per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$851now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$9
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$80
other 38% −$244
sports 10% +$1,854
culture 4% −$8
economics 2% −$2
crypto 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 60 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 135 +2.2% -7.6% 28% 11% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 11% -8.6%
10% -16.4% 11% -17.3%
15% -24.5% 8% -25.3%
20% -31.9% 6% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,509) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$7 · ×8.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.24 per $1 lost it wins $3.24
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$851
Realized+$1,542
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses38 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage153d
Avg bet$1,068
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $849 $851 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $965 −$1 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 27 $310 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 27 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $289 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $281 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $431 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 20 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 20 $350 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,347 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,179 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,761 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,391 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $3,099 −$3 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $1,228 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,928 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,921 −$5 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,026 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,913 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $626 +$1 +0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,067 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $3,487 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $1,057 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,364 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $4,759 −$5 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? May 19 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 19 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $4,799 −$5 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $3,157 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $2,507 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 01 $425 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 01 $533 +$1 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,301 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $4,053 −$4 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 20 $1,581 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $2,559 −$3 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $3,659 −$3 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2,808 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $2,038 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $3,013 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,618 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,509 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $414 1h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $310 3h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $415 3h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $310 6h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $483 7h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $484 9h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $288 23h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $289 27h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $281 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $281 6d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $430 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $431 7d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $483 7d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $484 7d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $350 7d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $350 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $849 11d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,345 12d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,347 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,307 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,309 14d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,177 14d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,179 15d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,182 15d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,184 15d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,389 15d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,391 15d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,434 16d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,435 16d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,226 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $850.55 · official $850.55 (match) · 457 history records