Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:30:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F2 0xf21a…da67 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$901 (+33%) realized +$901 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days+$555
14 days+$835
30 days+$835
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$876
sports 13% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +12.8% +2.1% 33% 33% +15.3%
≤30d 13 +15.0% +4.1% 38% 38% +18.5%
≤90d 13 +15.0% +4.1% 38% 38% +18.5%
all 13 +15.0% +4.1% 38% 38% +18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.1% 38% +18.5%
10% -5.9% 38% +7.1%
15% -15.0% 38% -3.2%
20% -23.3% 31% -12.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$382 vs −$134 · ×2.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$901
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage9d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $82 −$81 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $86 +$215 +249%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $160 −$156 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $109 +$480 +442%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $105 −$102 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $494 +$519 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $522 −$515 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $262 +$414 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $675 +$280 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $44 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $49 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $54 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $82 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $302 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $86 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $160 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $589 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $77 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $109 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $105 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,013 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $522 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $494 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $676 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $262 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $955 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $553 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $122 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records