Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:47:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F2 0xf21a…8316 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$97 (+7%) realized +$100 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$95
14 days+$95
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$8
crypto 5% +$27
sports 3% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +37.8% +24.6% 80% 70% -3.0%
≤30d 10 +37.8% +24.6% 80% 70% -3.0%
≤90d 15 +10.2% -0.3% 67% 60% -3.6%
all 15 +10.2% -0.3% 67% 60% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 60% -3.6%
10% -9.8% 47% -12.8%
15% -18.5% 40% -21.3%
20% -26.5% 20% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$58 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$100
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage60d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $87 +$36 +42%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$66 +325%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$14 +46%
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 21 $34 +$6 +18%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $257 −$255 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $208 +$4 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$35 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $387 +$46 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $220 +$167 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 28 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 28 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $41 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $124 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $87 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 32h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 44h
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 29¢ $32 44h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $257 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 70¢ $211 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $208 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $96 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $387 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $387 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $220 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $4 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 55d
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 55d
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 22¢ $34 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.48 · official $77.49 (match) · 31 history records