Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:24:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf21a…089c other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,230 (-7%) realized −$1,230 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate22%4W / 14L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$941per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$3,320
sports 18% +$654
world 12% +$647
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -29.5% -36.2% 22% 17% -20.3%
≤30d 18 -29.5% -36.2% 22% 17% -20.3%
≤90d 18 -29.5% -36.2% 22% 17% -20.3%
all 18 -29.5% -36.2% 22% 17% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 17% -20.3%
10% -42.3% 17% -27.9%
15% -47.9% 11% -34.9%
20% -53.0% 11% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,701) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$419 vs −$264 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses4 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage6d
Avg bet$941
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $807 +$752 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,048 −$1,242 -61%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,982 +$62 +3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $452 −$442 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,689 −$253 -9%
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $2,048 +$647 +32%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 −$47 -93%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 −$98 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $104 −$102 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $383 +$216 +56%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $440 −$59 -13%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $668 −$235 -35%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $718 −$50 -7%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,196 −$620 -52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,701 −$500 -29%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,549 −$47 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $807 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $806 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $2,048 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,982 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 22¢ $452 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 62¢ $2,436 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $2,689 26h
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes $1 41h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $356 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $2,339 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $2,048 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $50 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $68 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $599 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $383 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $381 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $440 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 27¢ $433 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $668 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $668 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $718 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $576 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $990 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $206 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 52¢ $1,201 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,701 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1,502 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records