Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf21b…e4c6 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$83 (-25%) realized −$72 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$9
14 days+$19
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% −$85
other 27% −$13
sports 3% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +40.0% +26.6% 75% 50% +6.6%
≤30d 7 +41.3% +27.9% 71% 57% +15.0%
≤90d 8 +29.8% +17.5% 62% 50% -34.8%
all 8 +29.8% +17.5% 62% 50% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.5% 50% -34.8%
10% +6.2% 50% -41.1%
15% -4.0% 50% -46.8%
20% -13.4% 50% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$40 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$72
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage76d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 46¢ 44¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $10 +$17 +159%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$15 -74%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $198 −$100 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $27 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 24h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 77¢ $11 37h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 46¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 4d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 6d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $10 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 16d
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 16d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca SELL Jakub Mensik 100¢ $18 23d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes $5 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 54¢ $10 23d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 23d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 70¢ $10 23d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $10 25d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $98 38d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $198 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.72 · official $43.74 (match) · 37 history records