Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
F2 0xf223…5ac3 other 3 markets active 5d ago coverage 99d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$1 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$356per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$1,043now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 99d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$1
other 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -5.5% -14.5% 0% 0% -14.5%
≤30d 1 -5.5% -14.5% 0% 0% -14.5%
≤90d 1 -5.5% -14.5% 0% 0% -14.5%
all 1 -5.5% -14.5% 0% 0% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 0% -14.5%
10% -22.6% 0% -22.6%
15% -30.1% 0% -30.1%
20% -37.0% 0% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$1,043
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1 / 3
History coverage99d
Avg bet$356
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $1,027 $1,027 −$1 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $20 $17 −$4 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $20 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 4d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 50¢ $1,027 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,043.46 · official $1,043.46 (match) · 8 history records