Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
F2 0xf223…7b5f politics 74 markets active 7h ago coverage 750d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,477 (+11%) realized +$1,776 · open −$299
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate43%30W / 40L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$695now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% +$1,283
other 15% +$122
tech 6% −$445
economics 5% −$423
crypto 3% +$684
sports 1% −$123
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 70 +12.9% +2.1% 43% 30% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 30% +1.8%
10% -7.6% 24% -7.9%
15% -16.6% 24% -16.8%
20% -24.8% 17% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +56% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$52 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

750d coverage
Net worth$695
Realized+$1,776
Unrealized−$299
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses30 / 40
Open positions4
Markets (closed)70 / 74
History coverage750d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $643 $505 −$138 (-21%)
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $106 $163 +$57 (+54%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $15 $24 +$8 (+56%)
Another Canada election called by June 30? Yes 39¢ 1¢ $229 $3 −$226 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? Feb 06 $77 +$61 +79%
Will Noah rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? Feb 02 $14 +$14 +96%
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31? Jan 08 $58 −$58 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jan 08 $35 −$35 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jan 08 $92 −$92 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jan 08 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Craig Sauvé win the 2025 Montreal mayor election? Nov 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Pathward Financial (CASH) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? Nov 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Soraya Martinez Ferrada win the 2025 Montreal mayor election? Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Up Only podcast released by October 31? Oct 22 $120 +$21 +17%
Fed rate cut in 2025? Jun 18 $223 −$223 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Crypto" 10+ times during Crypto Summit on Frida Mar 10 $57 −$57 -100%
Trump cryptocurrency executive order in first week? Jan 23 $285 +$751 +264%
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during December FO Jan 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during December FO Jan 23 $90 −$90 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? Jan 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting? Jan 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during December FOMC P Dec 18 $14 +$69 +498%
Trudeau out in 2024? Dec 17 $901 +$68 +8%
Trudeau out before April? Dec 17 $49 +$34 +70%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will a Democrat win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $3,490 +$1,311 +38%
Will the AP call the election on November 6? Nov 04 $300 −$15 -5%
Fed emergency rate cut in 2024? Oct 13 $78 +$16 +20%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting? Sep 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024? Sep 26 $95 −$95 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? Sep 26 $154 −$154 -100%
RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August? Aug 21 $234 −$10 -4%
Will Trump say "Tampon" at his press conference? Aug 19 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" at his press conference? Aug 19 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Trump say "Illegal Immigration" at his press conference? Aug 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake News" at his press conference? Aug 15 $57 +$42 +74%
Trump fires campaign manager in August? Aug 15 $127 −$24 -19%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" at his press confe Aug 14 $100 −$1 -1%
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $95 +$48 +50%
Will Trump say "MAGA" during Elon interview? Aug 13 $66 +$34 +51%
Will Trump say "Tesla" during Elon interview? Aug 13 $662 −$454 -69%
Will Trump say "Mars" during Elon interview? Aug 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Trump say "Censor" or "Censorship" during Elon interview? Aug 13 $16 +$19 +123%
Will another woman be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 10 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Kamala say "Brat" before August? Jul 31 $167 +$34 +20%
Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve? Jul 27 $100 −$10 -10%
Biden seen in public Wednesday? Jul 25 $50 +$543 +1086%
Will Biden say "Drop out" during drop out speech? Jul 25 $43 +$81 +189%
Will Biden say "Trump" during drop out speech? Jul 24 $11 +$66 +627%
Will Biden say "Democracy" during drop out speech? Jul 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Kamala say "coconut" before August? Jul 24 $29 +$12 +42%
Will Biden finish his term? Jul 23 $374 −$8 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1,210 7h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 18d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 58d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 79d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 84d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 88d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 93d
Another Canada election called by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $129 121d
Another Canada election called by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $100 126d
Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? SELL No 14¢ $138 129d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $213 134d
Will Noah rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? SELL Yes 10¢ $28 134d
Another Canada election called by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $52 140d
Another Canada election called by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $36 142d
Another Canada election called by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 143d
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31? BUY No 22¢ $1 158d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 1¢ $8 158d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 1¢ $8 158d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 158d
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31? BUY No 25¢ $30 158d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY No 1¢ $9 158d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 158d
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31? BUY No 25¢ $9 158d
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31? BUY No 25¢ $18 158d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 158d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 1¢ $3 158d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY No 1¢ $12 158d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 1¢ $5 158d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 158d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 1¢ $8 158d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $695.13 · official $695.14 (match) · 662 history records