Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:51:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf224…3d19 crypto 475 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d only
✗ bot/MM pace (162 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$307 (+4%) realized +$308 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate84%400W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day162.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$56
14 days−$56
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (162 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 -2.9% -12.2% 79% 8% -12.4%
≤30d 474 -0.9% -10.3% 84% 4% -11.0%
≤90d 474 -0.9% -10.3% 84% 4% -11.0%
all 474 -0.9% -10.3% 84% 4% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover162.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 4% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 2% -19.6%
15% -26.8% 1% -27.3%
20% -33.9% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$308
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses400 / 74
Open positions1
Markets (closed)474 / 475
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day162.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 474 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Up 66¢ 60¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $38 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $54 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$9 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$11 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.08 · official $5.16 (match) · 3500 history records