Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:13:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F2 0xf224…0d87 other 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$14
politics 30% −$8
sports 3% −$20
crypto 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 88 -2.9% -12.2% 7% 3% -9.8%
all 96 -2.3% -11.6% 8% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 5% -9.7%
10% -20.0% 4% -18.3%
15% -27.8% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 88
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage116d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $285 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $472 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $210 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $217 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $14 $0 +1%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $237 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $242 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $241 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $432 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $237 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $246 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $243 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $442 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $202 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $209 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $223 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $247 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $230 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $195 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $208 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $236 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $225 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $198 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $180 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $203 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $250 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $470 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $395 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $221 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 17 $465 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 16 $244 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $219 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $216 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $430 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 12 $227 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $223 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $228 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $186 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $447 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $509 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 13h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $22 14h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 14d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 17d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 20d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $265 26d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $266 32d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 38d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 38d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $222 44d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $234 44d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $234 45d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $250 45d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $250 46d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $210 46d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $210 46d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 46d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $217 47d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $210 47d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $210 47d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $237 47d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $237 47d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $242 47d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $242 47d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $241 47d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $241 48d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $236 49d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $236 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $30.98 (match) · 294 history records