Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

F2 0xf226…71f8 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$97 (+67%) realized +$146 · open −$49

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +176% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +140% what you keep after slip

Net edge+140%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown28%max

Avg bet$36per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+149.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+176.2%	+149.9%	50%	50%	+150.3%
≤30d	2	+176.2%	+149.9%	50%	50%	+150.3%
≤90d	2	+176.2%	+149.9%	50%	50%	+150.3%
all	2	+176.2%	+149.9%	50%	50%	+150.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+149.9%	50%	+150.3%
10%	+126.0%	50%	+126.4%
15%	+104.1%	50%	+104.5%
20%	+84.1%	50%	+84.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +177% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +176% · $-wt +177% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$120 vs −$27 · ×4.54 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.54 per $1 lost it wins $4.54

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$39

Realized+$146

Unrealized−$49

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$36

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown28%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$38	$38	−$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	2¢	$50	$1	−$49 (-98%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 21	$27	−$27	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$27	+$120	+452%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$40	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$52	4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$27	25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	17¢	$27	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.79 · official $38.80 (match) · 6 history records