Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:15:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf22b…7eab other 343 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,652 (-6%) realized −$2,515 · open −$137
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate41%84W / 119L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day68.5pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$7,720now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$197
7 days−$256
14 days−$415
30 days−$521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$22
economics 14% −$1
tech 8% −$53
sports 8% −$316
finance 2% −$79
crypto 2% −$72
politics 1% −$54
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +5.9% -4.1% 42% 15% -12.6%
≤30d 163 -1.8% -11.2% 40% 17% -11.8%
≤90d 203 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 19% -11.2%
all 203 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 19% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 19% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 14% -19.7%
15% -26.9% 9% -27.5%
20% -34.1% 8% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$7,720
Realized−$2,515
Unrealized−$137
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses84 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions157
Markets (closed)203 / 343
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$140
Trades / day68.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 157 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 88¢ 90¢ $489 $499 +$9 (+2%)
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 70¢ $466 $496 +$29 (+6%)
Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch? No 31¢ 43¢ $342 $478 +$136 (+40%)
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 80¢ 55¢ $585 $402 −$183 (-31%)
MagicBlock FDV above $40M one day after launch? Yes 64¢ 76¢ $335 $397 +$62 (+18%)
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 75¢ 78¢ $362 $376 +$14 (+4%)
Neutrl FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 60¢ 50¢ $428 $361 −$68 (-16%)
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 85¢ 83¢ $343 $337 −$7 (-2%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No 42¢ 43¢ $216 $221 +$5 (+2%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $214 $213 −$1 (-1%)
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? No 66¢ 67¢ $206 $210 +$4 (+2%)
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $184 $198 +$14 (+8%)
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $181 $181 −$1 (-0%)
Abstract FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? No 93¢ 84¢ $169 $152 −$17 (-10%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 74¢ 74¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 84¢ $139 $141 +$3 (+2%)
Concrete FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 39¢ 36¢ $131 $122 −$8 (-6%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 59¢ 68¢ $105 $122 +$17 (+16%)
Decibel FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 67¢ 65¢ $108 $104 −$4 (-3%)
Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 68¢ 78¢ $87 $100 +$13 (+15%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 52¢ 56¢ $93 $100 +$6 (+7%)
Pacifica FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 92¢ 71¢ $127 $98 −$29 (-23%)
Pacifica FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 72¢ 80¢ $88 $96 +$9 (+10%)
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 78¢ 85¢ $85 $93 +$7 (+9%)
QFEX FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 73¢ 64¢ $100 $87 −$12 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - April 17, 11PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Huddle FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 17 $22 −$1 -7%
Aligned FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 17 $43 −$20 -48%
MagicBlock FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 17 $76 +$5 +6%
APYX FDV above $80M one day after launch? Jun 17 $64 −$10 -16%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 17 $26 $0 -2%
Betmoar FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $6 +$31 +551%
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 16 $300 −$5 -2%
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jun 16 $417 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30? Jun 16 $34 +$5 +16%
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 16 $36 −$3 -8%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 16 $13 −$3 -20%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $252 +$88 +35%
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 16 $101 +$7 +7%
Stripe IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $18 −$3 -14%
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 16 $31 +$2 +7%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $253 +$39 +16%
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $18 +$79 +444%
Dreamcash FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 15 $70 −$3 -5%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? Jun 15 $98 +$4 +4%
Will Theo launch a token by June 30 2026? Jun 15 $91 +$1 +1%
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 15 $287 −$12 -4%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $496 −$53 -11%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $358 +$10 +3%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $328 in June? Jun 14 $42 +$2 +4%
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? Jun 14 $177 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $840 −$83 -10%
Felix Protocol FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -40%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? Jun 14 $57 $0 +1%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -24%
Reppo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 13 $10 +$7 +76%
Reppo FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 13 $14 +$4 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $65 −$10 -16%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $195 +$5 +3%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $102 +$7 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $24 −$22 -92%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $64 +$11 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $241 −$38 -16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $263 +$8 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $88 $0 +0%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 12 $64 −$25 -40%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -50%
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 12 $53 −$8 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $67 −$14 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 48¢ $8 26m
Huddle FDV above $20M one day after launch? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 27m
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? SELL No 46¢ $10 34m
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 54¢ $21 35m
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? SELL No 44¢ $8 35m
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? SELL No 45¢ $18 36m
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? SELL No 44¢ $4 36m
MagicBlock FDV above $40M one day after launch? SELL Yes 57¢ $40 52m
MagicBlock FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 83¢ $11 54m
MagicBlock FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 59¢ $10 55m
Aligned FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 59m
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 77¢ $18 1h
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? SELL No 42¢ $8 1h
Huddle FDV above $10M one day after launch? BUY No 40¢ $3 1h
Huddle FDV above $10M one day after launch? BUY No 59¢ $18 1h
Huddle FDV above $10M one day after launch? SELL Yes 34¢ $14 1h
Huddle FDV above $10M one day after launch? SELL Yes 34¢ $12 1h
Huddle FDV above $10M one day after launch? SELL Yes 34¢ $14 1h
Abstract FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? BUY No 83¢ $17 2h
APYX FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 36¢ $1 2h
Abstract FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? BUY No 83¢ $17 2h
MagicBlock FDV above $20M one day after launch? SELL No 32¢ $3 2h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 3h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 66¢ $64 3h
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 79¢ $38 4h
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 79¢ $77 4h
Noble FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 82¢ $25 4h
Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes $3 4h
Huddle FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 4h
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY No 43¢ $19 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,720.21 · official $7,670.55 (match) · 3500 history records