Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:41:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F2 0xf232…c01c other 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,105 (+1%) realized +$1,105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate20%27W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$1,507per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$662now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$17
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$89
other 37% +$45
sports 13% +$1,133
culture 4% −$9
economics 2% −$1
world 2% −$4
tech 2% −$5
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 +6.9% -3.3% 12% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 80 +1.3% -8.3% 9% 4% -9.2%
all 136 +2.4% -7.4% 20% 14% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 14% -9.0%
10% -16.2% 13% -17.8%
15% -24.3% 12% -25.7%
20% -31.8% 11% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,870) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$12 · ×7.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$662
Realized+$1,105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses27 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)136 / 138
History coverage130d
Avg bet$1,507
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $405 $406 +$1 (+0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $257 $257 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 24 $256 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1,590 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $266 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $279 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $710 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $877 +$4 +0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,955 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 16 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $2,241 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $861 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 14 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,468 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $2,349 −$4 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,313 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,550 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $7,180 −$7 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,276 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $2,356 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,782 −$3 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $51 +$74 +146%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,211 −$5 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $519 −$1 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $70 +$56 +79%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,088 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $574 +$1 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,388 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,653 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,782 −$3 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,304 −$2 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $1,204 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $4,876 −$7 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $849 −$1 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 21 $809 +$725 +90%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $4,339 −$5 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,672 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $1,542 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $5,131 −$5 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $1,636 −$3 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 25 $1,686 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $1,534 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,532 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,515 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,570 −$2 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $1,432 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $257 1h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $256 3h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $256 4h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $223 44h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $223 46h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $266 47h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $266 2d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $279 2d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $279 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $868 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $869 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $709 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $710 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $877 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $878 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $701 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $703 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $891 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $892 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $860 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $861 9d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $849 9d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $850 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $893 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $894 10d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $405 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,250 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,252 14d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,311 14d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,313 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $662.46 · official $662.46 (match) · 448 history records