Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:54:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F2 0xf235…2feb other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$177 (+12%) realized +$238 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$577now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$44
14 days+$90
30 days+$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$37
sports 26% +$107
economics 21% +$4
politics 12% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +33.1% +20.4% 100% 50% +16.0%
≤30d 6 +26.9% +14.8% 83% 67% +15.6%
≤90d 6 +26.9% +14.8% 83% 67% +15.6%
all 6 +26.9% +14.8% 83% 67% +15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.8% 67% +15.6%
10% +3.8% 67% +4.6%
15% -6.2% 33% -5.5%
20% -15.4% 17% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$3 · ×13.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×68.68 per $1 lost it wins $68.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$577
Realized+$238
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)6 / 18
History coverage29d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 36¢ 36¢ $300 $304 +$4 (+1%)
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $110 $75 −$35 (-32%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $51 $60 +$9 (+18%)
Will New Zealand win? No 39¢ 38¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $11 $13 +$1 (+13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $8 $12 +$3 (+40%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 29¢ 10¢ $29 $10 −$19 (-67%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $9 $7 −$1 (-16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-27%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 23¢ 6¢ $23 $6 −$17 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $63 +$37 +59%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $93 +$7 +8%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $101 +$46 +45%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 05 $151 +$42 +28%
Will England win? Jun 04 $57 −$3 -6%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $383 +$107 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win? BUY No 38¢ $13 54m
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 36¢ $310 1h
Will New Zealand win? BUY No 39¢ $40 1h
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 84¢ $147 11d
Will the match end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $0 14d
Will the match end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $173 14d
Will the match end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $10 14d
Will the match end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $10 14d
Will the match end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $1 14d
Will the match end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $72 15d
Will England win? SELL No 54¢ $53 15d
Will England win? BUY No 56¢ $57 15d
Will the match end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $79 15d
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 16d
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16d
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 16d
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 16d
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16d
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16d
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $45 16d
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16d
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16d
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 16d
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $576.73 · official $576.73 (match) · 116 history records