Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:39:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F2 0xf237…32c6 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$19 (+14%) realized +$20 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +107% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +87% what you keep after slip

Net edge+87%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$27per market

Trades / day1.2pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+87.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+106.9%	+87.2%	100%	100%	+87.2%
≤30d	2	+106.9%	+87.2%	100%	100%	+87.2%
≤90d	2	+106.9%	+87.2%	100%	100%	+87.2%
all	2	+106.9%	+87.2%	100%	100%	+87.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+87.2%	100%	+87.2%
10%	+69.2%	100%	+69.3%
15%	+52.9%	100%	+52.9%
20%	+37.9%	100%	+37.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +107% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +107% · $-wt +107% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$111

Realized+$20

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage4d

Avg bet$27

Trades / day1.2

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$12	$12	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$8	+$7	+87%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$8	+$11	+127%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	52¢	$13	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	25¢	$53	2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$52	2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	42¢	$8	4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	51¢	$8	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.56 · official $110.56 (match) · 7 history records