Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:56:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf23a…6eb8 sports 208 markets active 2h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$23 (+2%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%82W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$79
14 days+$79
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$98
other 47% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +90.9% +72.7% 75% 75% +65.1%
≤30d 15 +52.7% +38.1% 60% 60% -19.1%
≤90d 23 +27.6% +15.4% 52% 52% -23.8%
all 208 +6.0% -4.1% 39% 39% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 39% -9.9%
10% -13.3% 39% -18.6%
15% -21.7% 39% -26.4%
20% -29.3% 39% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses82 / 126
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)208 / 208
History coverage218d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 208 Trades
no open positions (124 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $5 +$8 +152%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $11 +$9 +79%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $10 +$21 +206%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $6 +$7 +123%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 28 $5 +$12 +226%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$7 +70%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$11 +109%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $5 +$17 +324%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Comoros win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $40 −$40 -98%
World Championships: Finland vs. Czechia May 28 $8 −$8 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $12 −$12 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 May 24 $5 +$8 +152%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $5 +$3 +67%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 22 $8 +$10 +125%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5 May 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Atalanta BC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5 Dec 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 Dec 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) Dec 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5 Dec 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5 Dec 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 28 $10 +$32 +317%
Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 27 $12 +$9 +75%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Dec 22 $5 +$6 +117%
Will Torino FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $5 +$11 +212%
Will FC Twente '65 win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $7 −$7 -100%
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Rangers FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hannover 96 win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2025-12-20? Dec 21 $5 +$14 +270%
Will AC Reggiana 1919 win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $10 −$10 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 20 $2 +$3 +142%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 4h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $20 4h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 4h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $11 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 4h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $17 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 100¢ $21 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $3 5h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 5h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 5h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $5 6h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 6h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 30¢ $5 6h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 47¢ $10 6h
Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 19d
Will Comoros win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 19d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $40 28d
World Championships: Finland vs. Czechia BUY Czechia 26¢ $8 30d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $3 31d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 31d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 31d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $5 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 339 history records