Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:04:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf23a…50f6 sports 431 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$251 (+5%) realized +$269 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%153W / 272L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days−$894
14 days−$821
30 days+$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$175
world 21% +$4
other 12% +$267
weather 6% −$170
crypto 4% −$85
politics 3% +$1
finance 1% $0
culture 1% +$9
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -66.1% -69.3% 15% 14% -46.0%
≤30d 211 +7.9% -2.4% 38% 35% -4.3%
≤90d 425 +2.2% -7.5% 36% 30% -5.4%
all 425 +2.2% -7.5% 36% 30% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 30% -5.4%
10% -16.4% 28% -14.4%
15% -24.5% 25% -22.7%
20% -31.9% 21% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$269
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses153 / 272
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions6
Markets (closed)425 / 431
History coverage85d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 425 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 55¢ 55¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Martina Trevisan 58¢ 50¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Aliona Falei 56¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $160 −$11 -7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$19 +376%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $175 +$25 +14%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$5 +31%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 +$9 +61%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$26 +525%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$10 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $15 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $55 +$25 +45%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $15 +$16 +104%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $35 +$13 +36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $105 +$17 +16%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 12 $0 $0 -17%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Monte Carlo Masters? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-07? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -100%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 23? Jun 12 $30 −$18 -60%
Ghazl El Mahalla SC vs. El Ittihad SC El Iskandary: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
CA Peñarol vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
CD Leganés vs. SD Huesca: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eur Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
CD Universidad Católica vs. Barcelona SC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $44 −$11 -24%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei BUY Aliona Falei 36¢ $3 1h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 55¢ $15 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei BUY Aliona Falei 63¢ $14 1h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 58¢ $5 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $15 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $15 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $15 17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 28h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 50¢ $12 30h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 41h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 41h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $7 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $3 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $5 2d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 98¢ $15 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $19 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 59¢ $15 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 57¢ $5 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $5 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 74¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 45¢ $15 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $5 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $5 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $5 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $5 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 87¢ $15 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $15 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $5 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.32 · official $64.32 (match) · 1669 history records