Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:05:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F2 0xf23b…2a4d tech 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-19%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -81% what you keep after slip
Net edge-81%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 44% +$23
crypto 23% −$5
sports 22% −$50
tech 7% −$17
other 5% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-80.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -54.8% -59.1% 0% 0% -31.3%
≤30d 3 -28.8% -35.6% 33% 33% -4.9%
≤90d 3 -28.8% -35.6% 33% 33% -4.9%
all 10 -78.6% -80.7% 10% 10% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -80.7% 10% -32.5%
10% -82.5% 10% -39.0%
15% -84.2% 0% -44.9%
20% -85.8% 0% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -79% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$9 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage112d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? Jun 28 $53 −$5 -10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $11 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $101 +$23 +23%
Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records