Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf23e…d15c other 213 markets active 4d ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%19W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$11
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$8
other 27% −$11
sports 20% −$4
world 6% $0
crypto 6% −$2
economics 6% −$2
culture 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 59 -0.7% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 111 -0.6% -10.1% 5% 0% -9.9%
all 213 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses19 / 194
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)213 / 213
History coverage150d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 213 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $161 −$1 -1%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $19 $0 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $49 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $41 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $13 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $22 $0 -1%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $165 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $9 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 09 $15 $0 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $17 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $97 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $92 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $213 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 06 $22 $0 -2%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $34 −$3 -8%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $22 $0 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $21 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $76 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $19 $0 -1%
Will Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $19 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $47 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 02 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $159 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $138 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $75 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $66 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $170 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 26 $61 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 25 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $62 $0 -0%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 May 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $16 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $18 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $18 4d
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $19 4d
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $19 4d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $9 4d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $9 4d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $18 4d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $18 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $12 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $12 5d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $19 5d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $19 5d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $14 5d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $15 5d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 5d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 6d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $20 6d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $20 6d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 6d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $11 6d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 6d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $13 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 7d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 97¢ $16 7d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $16 7d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $11 7d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $11 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 891 history records