Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F2 0xf241…f3e6 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$106 (-7%) realized −$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%28W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$1
politics 43% −$1
sports 8% −$118
crypto 6% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +40.2% +26.8% 75% 56% -9.1%
≤30d 46 +8.9% -1.5% 59% 50% -9.2%
≤90d 46 +8.9% -1.5% 59% 50% -9.2%
all 48 +7.2% -3.0% 58% 50% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 50% -16.2%
10% -12.3% 48% -24.2%
15% -20.8% 48% -31.5%
20% -28.5% 46% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses28 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage110d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 22 $628 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 22 $638 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9PM ET Jun 02 $25 +$4 +14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on March 4? Mar 20 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5AM ET Mar 16 $12 +$4 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $627 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $628 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $637 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $638 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.80 · official $2.80 (match) · 84 history records