Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf242…2303 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% $0
world 28% −$5
tech 6% +$1
crypto 5% −$1
politics 5% −$1
sports 3% +$8
weather 3% −$5
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 9 -4.0% -13.1% 22% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 9 -4.0% -13.1% 22% 0% -11.7%
all 51 -9.8% -18.4% 35% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 4% -10.0%
10% -26.2% 2% -18.6%
15% -33.3% 2% -26.5%
20% -39.9% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage475d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $37 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $36 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $27 −$7 -26%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $30 +$3 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $3 $0 -19%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jul 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $15 $0 +2%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11? Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? Jul 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $2 $0 +5%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 02 $2 $0 -1%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 02 $16 $0 -2%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 26 $16 $0 +2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2025 French Open? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National minority? May 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 11–18? Apr 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or higher on April 12? Apr 14 $18 $0 +2%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the New York Giants? Apr 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? Apr 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 10 $1 $0 +8%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $7 −$1 -10%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -80%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 31 $10 $0 +1%
Another Trump x Putin talk in March? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -68%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $21 $0 +1%
Will 'Magazine Dreams' gross less than 1m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 25? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 23 $26 +$3 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $36 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $14 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $23 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $33 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $1 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $34 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $4 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $21 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $12 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 94¢ $36 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $20 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $27 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $14 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $19 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $16 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 26d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $28 27d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 75¢ $28 27d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi SELL No 97¢ $15 343d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi BUY No 96¢ $15 343d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 150 history records