Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf242…9c31 crypto 22 markets active 1d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-48%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate14%3W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-57.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -52.9% -57.3% 14% 9% -55.4%
≤30d 22 -52.9% -57.3% 14% 9% -55.4%
≤90d 22 -52.9% -57.3% 14% 9% -55.4%
all 22 -52.9% -57.3% 14% 9% -55.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.3% 9% -55.4%
10% -61.4% 9% -59.7%
15% -65.2% 9% -63.6%
20% -68.6% 9% -67.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -90% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses3 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$4 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records