Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf244…bedd other 843 markets active 0h ago coverage 591d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,141 (+1%) realized +$3,133 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate90%738W / 81L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$440per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,627now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 591d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$1,089
culture 30% +$445
crypto 16% −$1,348
politics 11% +$610
sports 1% −$1,709
tech 0% +$15
world 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 86 +5.6% -4.5% 97% 8% -8.1%
≤90d 411 -2.5% -11.8% 92% 5% -13.8%
all 819 -1.8% -11.2% 90% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 10% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 5% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 4% -26.3%
20% -34.6% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$168 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$1,627
Realized+$3,133
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses738 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions24
Markets (closed)819 / 843
History coverage591d
Avg bet$440
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 819 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $240 $242 +$2 (+1%)
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the top global Netflix movie this week? No 98¢ 100¢ $158 $161 +$2 (+1%)
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? No 97¢ 96¢ $154 $152 −$2 (-1%)
Will "I Will Find You" be the top global Netflix show this week? Yes 98¢ 96¢ $139 $137 −$2 (-2%)
Will "Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? No 98¢ 98¢ $117 $116 −$1 (-1%)
Will "AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3" be the top global Netflix show this week? No 99¢ 100¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Will "The Last Ship: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? No 99¢ 98¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 99¢ 100¢ $74 $75 +$0 (+1%)
Will "KPop Demon Hunters" be the top global Netflix movie this week? No 98¢ 99¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 99¢ 100¢ $59 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will "Ms. Rachel: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 99¢ 100¢ $58 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the top US Netflix movie this week? No 98¢ 100¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Will "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will "Little Brother" be the top global Netflix movie this week? No 98¢ 98¢ $42 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Will "Swapped" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? No 97¢ 100¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Will "Street Kings" be the top US Netflix movie this week? No 97¢ 100¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Will "KPop Demon Hunters" be the top US Netflix movie this week? No 97¢ 100¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Will "Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? No 97¢ 100¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Will "Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief" be the top US Netflix movie this week? No 97¢ 100¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+3%)
Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? No 99¢ 98¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will "Street Kings" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? No 94¢ 98¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will "The Polygamist: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? No 97¢ 98¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will "The Last Ship: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? No 98¢ 99¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will "GOAT" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "The Witness" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $24 +$37 +159%
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $159 +$18 +11%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 16 $3 +$2 +88%
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $147 +$6 +4%
Will "Lawmen: Bass Reeves" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $66 +$1 +2%
Will "Tony H.: Man of the People" be the #2 global Netflix show this w Jun 16 $117 +$3 +3%
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this we Jun 16 $318 +$24 +8%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $149 +$1 +1%
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the top US Netflix movie this w Jun 16 $562 +$9 +2%
Will "Ladies First" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $74 +$1 +2%
Will "Piece by Piece" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +3%
Will "Poor Things" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $74 +$1 +2%
Will "Nemesis" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $186 +$2 +1%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this Jun 16 $142 +$3 +2%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Will "Tony H.: Man of the People" be the top US Netflix show this week Jun 16 $56 +$1 +2%
Will "Ladies First" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $83 +$2 +2%
Will "Lawmen: Bass Reeves" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $57 +$1 +2%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $138 +$1 +1%
Will "Ticket To Paradise (2022)" be the top global Netflix movie this Jun 16 $302 +$6 +2%
Will "Tony H.: Man of the People" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $23 +$1 +3%
Will "Creed III" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $164 +$4 +2%
Will "GOAT" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $135 +$1 +1%
Will "David" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $122 +$2 +2%
Will "Ladies First" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $377 +$5 +1%
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the top global Netflix movie th Jun 16 $67 +$1 +2%
Will "Song Sung Blue" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $270 +$5 +2%
Will "Poor Things" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $92 +$2 +2%
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -98%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 09 $530 +$12 +2%
Will "A Perfect Getaway" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $54 +$2 +3%
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the #2 US Netflix movie this we Jun 09 $49 +$1 +2%
Will "Poor Things" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $70 +$2 +3%
Will "Ladies First" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $54 +$2 +3%
Will "Swapped" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $60 +$3 +5%
Will "Cleaner" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $60 +$3 +5%
Will "Cleaner" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $656 +$7 +1%
Will "Poor Things" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $609 +$6 +1%
Will "A Perfect Getaway" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $656 +$7 +1%
Will "Poor Things" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $65 +$1 +2%
Will "Swapped" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $63 +$3 +4%
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the top global Netflix movie th Jun 09 $64 +$2 +4%
Will "David" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $140 +$4 +3%
Will "GOAT" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $64 +$1 +2%
Will "The Crash" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $48 +$2 +4%
Will "A Perfect Getaway" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $84 +$2 +2%
Will "Cleaner" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $211 +$3 +2%
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $160 +$67 +42%
Will "Grey's Anatomy: Season 22" be the #2 global Netflix show this we Jun 09 $49 +$1 +3%
Will "AFI Life Achievement Award: A Tribute to Eddie Murphy" be the #2 Jun 09 $49 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix s BUY Yes 96¢ $48 12m
Will "Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix s BUY Yes 95¢ $19 13m
Will "Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix s BUY Yes 95¢ $57 13m
Will "Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix s BUY Yes 94¢ $13 13m
Will "Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix s BUY Yes 94¢ $103 13m
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this wee BUY No 98¢ $116 35m
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this wee BUY No 96¢ $5 35m
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this wee BUY No 96¢ $34 36m
Will "Little Brother" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY No 98¢ $43 36m
Will "The Last Ship: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week BUY No 99¢ $90 1h
Will "I Will Find You" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 98¢ $139 1h
Will "Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show BUY No 99¢ $97 1h
Will "Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show BUY No 96¢ $20 2h
Will "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $49 2h
Will "The Last Ship: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this wee BUY No 98¢ $14 29h
Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY No 99¢ $18 29h
Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY No 99¢ $6 29h
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY No 99¢ $15 29h
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY No 99¢ $33 29h
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY No 99¢ $82 29h
Will "Ms. Rachel: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 99¢ $58 30h
Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 99¢ $59 30h
Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 99¢ $15 30h
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 99¢ $59 30h
Will "The Polygamist: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this we BUY No 97¢ $16 2d
Will "AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3" be BUY No 99¢ $90 2d
Will "Street Kings" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 97¢ $32 3d
Will "Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief" be the top U BUY No 97¢ $31 3d
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 98¢ $54 3d
Will "KPop Demon Hunters" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 97¢ $32 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,626.98 · official $1,624.61 (match) · 2729 history records