Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F2 0xf244…7be9 crypto 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (146 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+9%) realized +$36 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%33W / 33L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day146.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$28
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (146 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +7.9% -2.3% 50% 42% +3.4%
≤30d 66 +7.9% -2.3% 50% 42% +3.4%
≤90d 66 +7.9% -2.3% 50% 42% +3.4%
all 66 +7.9% -2.3% 50% 42% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover146.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 42% +3.4%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 38% -6.5%
15% -20.2% 32% -15.5%
20% -28.0% 23% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses33 / 33
Open positions9
Markets (closed)66 / 75
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day146.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Down 27¢ 97¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+259%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Down 89¢ 96¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+99%)
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 16, 11AM ET? Yes 41¢ 28¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Up 21¢ 6¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-69%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Down 84¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 28¢ 4¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-84%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 30¢ 8¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-72%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Up 13¢ 3¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-77%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$4 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +179%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -29%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -47%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -15%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$9 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$11 +525%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +187%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$12 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -15%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$9 +138%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$16 +155%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$9 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$7 +310%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +108%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 16, 11AM ET? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 16, 11AM ET? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.86 · official $38.61 (match) · 210 history records