Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:40:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf245…746b
sports · 1547 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,507 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,908 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized−$2,908
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses768 / 820
Est. fees paid−$203
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1588 / 1547
History coverage65d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day41.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 20 History 1588 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,809
7 days−$1,772
14 days−$1,711
30 days−$1,932
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+21%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner T1 27¢ 50¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+85%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+104%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 34¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 29¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) T1 49¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-2.5) Al Hilal Saudi Club 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5) Cavaliers 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Lakers (-3.5) Lakers 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will AZ win on 2026-02-08? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Pacers vs. Clippers: O/U 228.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-05? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Bulls Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Pacers vs. Hornets Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-03-31? Jun 14 $4 −$5 -110%
Will FC Seoul win on 2026-04-05? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Chicago Fire FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-04-07? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 9? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-03-21? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Hornets vs. Suns Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
CA Osasuna vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Warriors vs. Wizards Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-17.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Clippers vs. Kings: O/U 231.5 Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-02-09? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Moreirense FC vs. SC Braga: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
CA Osasuna vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: O/U 236.5 Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 90% −$963
other 9% −$96
crypto 1% −$33
weather 0% +$3
politics 0% −$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 21¢ $1 3m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 39¢ $1 30m
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 49¢ $1 40m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $1 41m
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 2¢ $0 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 48¢ $1 3h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 16¢ $1 5h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $1 5h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 26¢ $1 5h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 5h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $1 5h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $1 6h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 6h
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 6h
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire BUY Dallas Wings 60¢ $1 6h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Los Angeles Sparks 53¢ $1 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 15h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1 15h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 15h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $1 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 15h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 14¢ $1 15h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 15h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 15h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $1 15h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $1 15h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 15h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 -45.8% -51.0% 28% 28% -93.4%
≤30d 569 -15.0% -23.1% 43% 41% -50.7%
≤90d 1588 -10.1% -18.7% 48% 46% -24.5%
all 1588 -10.1% -18.7% 48% 46% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover41.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 46% -24.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 44% -31.7%
15% -33.6% 40% -38.3%
20% -40.1% 34% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.86 · official $28.86 (match) · 3500 history records