Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F2 0xf24b…9057 weather 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%123W / 2L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$6
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 53 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 110 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 125 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×175.09 per $1 lost it wins $175.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses123 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage125d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $118 $118 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 29 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 26? Jun 26 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 26? Jun 26 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 26 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 24? Jun 24 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on June 2 Jun 21 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 21 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 Jun 15 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 7? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 6? Jun 07 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 6? Jun 07 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 6? Jun 06 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 1? Jun 01 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 31? Jun 01 $86 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $118 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $115 15h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $118 32h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $53 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $66 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $53 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $112 4d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $82 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $37 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $83 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $35 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $118 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $117 7d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on June 2 BUY No 100¢ $117 8d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 100¢ $117 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $117 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $117 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $117 11d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 11d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $117 12d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $116 13d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $54 13d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $64 13d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $117 13d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $117 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $116 15d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $117 16d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $116 17d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $115 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.94 · official $117.94 (match) · 254 history records