Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:06:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F2 0xf24c…ba91 other 113 markets active 1d ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$20
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$15
politics 19% −$4
sports 5% −$63
economics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -11.2% -19.7% 11% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 104 -4.9% -14.0% 8% 4% -9.9%
all 112 -5.5% -14.5% 10% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 6% -9.9%
10% -22.7% 6% -18.5%
15% -30.1% 6% -26.4%
20% -37.0% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 101
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage93d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $103 $103 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $47 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $205 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $65 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $449 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $40 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $81 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $31 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $207 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $367 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 16 $170 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $171 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $177 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $178 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $191 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $189 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $189 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $183 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $380 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $377 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $193 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $182 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $191 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $178 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $184 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $387 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $188 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $183 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $194 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $380 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $193 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $174 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $193 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $194 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 28h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 31h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 4d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 7d
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $103 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $12 9d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $7 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 10d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $30 11d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $30 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 14d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $41 15d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $41 15d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 21d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 21d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 23d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 23d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 23d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 23d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 25d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 25d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.43 · official $103.43 (match) · 303 history records