Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:17:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf24d…7588 other 34 markets active 4d ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%19W / 6L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$1
finance 18% $0
crypto 10% $0
world 5% +$1
weather 1% $0
economics 1% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -19.3% -27.0% 60% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 21 -4.2% -13.3% 71% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 25 -3.2% -12.5% 76% 0% -9.4%
all 25 -3.2% -12.5% 76% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$405
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses19 / 6
Open positions9
Markets (closed)25 / 34
History coverage43d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $191 $191 +$0 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $152 $152 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? No 91¢ 97¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+7%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 18 $183 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $11 $0 +2%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? Jun 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Sara be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squa Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Named storm forms before hurricane season? Jun 02 $10 $0 +4%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Neville" or "Chamberlain" in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? Jun 01 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? May 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $152 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $191 6d
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $179 6d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY No 88¢ $1 6d
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 99¢ $1 7d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $4 7d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $183 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $13 9d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 9d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $184 9d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $184 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 19d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 19d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 19d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? BUY No 100¢ $64 24d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 24d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 31d
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 31d
Will Trump say "Neville" or "Chamberlain" in May? BUY No 97¢ $1 31d
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $10 31d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 31d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 31d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 31d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 31d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 31d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 31d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $404.70 · official $404.66 (match) · 92 history records